The Padres face the league’s winningest team in the Division Series, but don’t call them underdogs.
It looked like the Padres wouldn’t make it that far. They closed June on an eight-game losing streak and entered the All-Star break with a .500 record. It’s something of a death sentence in the NL West, where the witchy Dodgers need perfection to knock them out of the top. In the last week of July, the Padres playoff odds dropped to 7.4%. Who would be fired or fired seemed to be the only relevant conversation in October.
Fast forward to Wednesday: Not only did the Padres convincingly check off the Cubs in the Wild Card round, they were the favorites to do so. His 41-18 record over the final 10 weeks of the season was the best in the majors. In fact, it was 2 1/2 games better than the Brewers, the next best team they faced in the Division Series on Saturday.
But it’s not just a vastly improved record. According to WAR, a statistical stand-in for “real talent,” no team has been better in the second half than the Padres. They posted a 21.9 WAR, narrowly ahead of the Cubs (21.8), Dodgers (21.5), Red Sox (21.4) and Brewers (20.2). This is one of the great team-level turnarounds this century.
Growing up in San Diego really isn’t too complicated. In the first half, the Padres scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and posted a 90 wRC+. In the second half, they scored the third most runs and posted a 119 wRC+. With the Cubs out of the picture, the Padres arguably have the best lineup left in the postseason field.
It starts with the stars. Fernando Tatís Jr. has been on a blistering pace since a freak slump to start the season. He struggled through May, hitting just .268/.345/.307 without a homer in his first 268 plate appearances. But he was also absolutely crushing the ball, shooting as high as 60%. It wasn’t the contact he made, it was where he went – either to the ground or to the opposite field. On May 29, Tatís hit his first home run. He went on to hit 24 more homers with a slash line of .303/.368/.549 (153 wRC+) before the season ended. Since his first homer, his 5.0 fWAR was second-best in the majors, behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just as the Padres have the best postseason lineup, Tatís may be the best player.
What has changed for him? In the plot below, we can see that Tatís has changed his position in the box from a closed and wide position at the beginning of the year to a more open and upright stance. Again, he was already making a lot of hard contact, but after the change, his contact traveled more in the air and on the pull side. It’s much easier to hit home runs when the batter is targeting the shallowest part of the park, and that seemed to be the difference for Tatís this summer.
Jackson Merrill’s struggles became even more evident in early 2026. During the month of June, Merrill hit .213/.271/.343 (72 wRC+). Since then, he has hit .299/.338/.544 (141 wRC+). Unlike Tatís, there is no clean narrative of what has changed. His strikeout rate has been strong all year. His swing hasn’t really changed, and he’s actually walking a little less these days. Maybe he just had an early setback and the cyclical nature of baseball turned in his favor. Regardless, with Merrill and Tatís, the Padres have one of the great one-two punches, especially considering both players are solid defenders and excellent base runners.
But it’s more than just a great duet. Ty France had his best season with a 141 wRC+ after waivers the last two years. Manny Machado hasn’t necessarily been a great all-around hitter, but he still hit 30 homers and played great defense at third base. Guys like Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, and Dustin Harris all play well in limited roles, and even their platoon seems to click. From top to bottom, things are going really well for the Padres staff.
On the mound, well, the Padres have a great pitching staff. The best I can say is that they could be presented better in these short series. There’s not a ton of depth here. Michael King has been dominant at times throughout his career, and in fact, we saw him throw one of his best outings against the Cubs earlier in the week. But he’s not the “real ace” in San Diego, more than just the top starter. From there, Nick Pivetta was truly impressive this year, making just eight starts — though no more than five innings — after missing most of the season with an elbow injury. Then there’s Walker Buhler, who the Padres hope can find their former playoff edge in 2022, even if he struggles considerably after elbow surgery. There are other starters who could get the nod in the NLDS, but it’s worth pointing out that these are the three. the best The Padres should bid at this point. Starting pitching is far from a strength.
The good news for the Padres is that they have a locking bullpen behind them – arguably the best in the majors. Everyone knows about Mason Miller, who just finished one of the greatest save seasons in history. His fastball averages 101.4 mph, his slider is untouchable and he strikes out half the batters he faces. Adrian Morejon serves as the 1b option for the Padres, arguably the best lefty reliever in the majors, generating tons of grounders with a heavy sinker and invsi-ball changeup. Even Bradgley Rodriguez could be called the third “one” as the first pitcher to make a rare changeup. Honestly, I could list the entire Padres bullpen: They’re deep, diverse, and highly effective all the way around.
They will have to face the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee won 103 games this year for the second straight season. It was the first time in franchise history that they topped triple digits in the win column. Like the Padres, they have great offense. Like the Padres, they have a great bullpen. But they also have an excellent rotation and league ace in Jacob Misiorowski. They are the favorites for the series and possibly the entire postseason. Put it that way, the Padres surged to the level of the Brewers, who just played like this all season.
Again, this isn’t your standard 103-game winner vs. 91-game winner, the former will definitely win over the latter. The Padres are a very good team these days and better than their full season record. At the very least, it would be a formidable opponent for the Dodgers in the NLCS if both teams make it through Atlanta.