Suppose you were designing an ideal Arsenal game for Viktor Gyokeres, what would it look like? You’d want his team-mates to stop in the final third and weave intricate patterns before Martin Odegaard struck a lethal through ball. You don’t want to rely on Joe Kreis’ defense, passing, or pressing. You just want to set up a camp where you can feed the guy who’s supposed to be your baggage guy and then he can, well, baggage.
This 1-0 win over Napoli was not far away from the vision of an ideal Joe Cres game. Before the Swede was sent off in the 74th minute, Arsenal had had 287 touches in the final third, Napoli had 42, and Odegaard alone had 50% more possession in these dangerous areas than his opponents.
The Gunners didn’t just knock on the door, they brought a sledgehammer to destroy Massimiliano Allegri’s defenders. They just swing them in all kinds of crazy directions. This isn’t necessarily Gyokeres’ failure. Arsenal’s problem in the first three quarters of this game was that Mikel Merino, Piero Hincapie and Bukayo Saka missed a series of chances in increasingly ridiculous fashion. Saka, in particular, rarely had chances as promising as his left-footed close-range 0;7 xG shot, which he somehow managed to get over Alex Meret’s crossbar.
Obviously, these players should do better in those moments. But at least they’re in a position to miss those opportunities again. Joe Kress did not have a shot on goal in the game, an honor shared with him only by Ezri Konsa and David Raya, and he had fewer touches in the penalty area than full-backs Hincapie and Ben White. He also had four shots on goal, although it was only Christos Tzolis who opened the scoring after a clever interception in the 70th minute that created a tempting chance for Arsenal to potentially score.
Of course, any center these days can bring some qualities to the game that aren’t necessarily reflected in the numbers. Even if the ball is not passed to the forwards, movement off the ball and behind the ball can create space for others. When the ball enters the final third, pressing the centre-backs and sprinting around the box may create opportunities for others. However, you might expect some of those runs to result in the ball flying toward him. Joe Kreis wasn’t looking for a service, but when Odegaard hissed between the lines, it was all too often for a forward who seemed to be out of rhythm.
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The truth is, running off the ball is not what you signed Joe Kress for. If Mikel Arteta wants someone to handle receiving or target man duties, he could choose Kai Havertz and Merino. When Gio Cres arrived from Sporting Lisbon with a goal-leading record, he was expected to be the output machine that no one else could be. To do that, he has to shoot. Nearly a quarter of his starts in the Premier League and Champions League have ended without Joe Kreis on target. Just 2 and a quarter non-penalty shots per 90 games as a starter and just 0.41 non-penalty expected goals: these are not the numbers you would expect from a striker at one of the clubs with the highest possession and ball possession rates in Europe.
perhaps Joe Kress’s impressive expected goals per shot (.217) is a mitigating factor, suggesting the forward doesn’t need to pull the trigger but rather lurk in search of a better start. and perhaps These figures are skewed by Arsenal and Joe Kreis’s struggles last season. With Havertz and Merlino regularly injured, the yeoman’s job fell on their new signings. That doesn’t appear to be the case this season. The supply lines crackled, and the shots of others rang out. This team’s 4.05 xG on Wednesday night may be a bit gaudy, but it’s only a partial outlier for a team that has already performed well in big games against Manchester City and Chelsea.
For a top striker, the opportunities should be there, and one thing data from across football has told us over the years is that a common characteristic of elite forwards is that they get those shots. They probably won’t convert them any more effectively than anyone else…unless they’re Lionel Messi. That’s not the point. The best people continue to get these opportunities.
Not so with Joe Kress. If he can’t get those openings when Arsenal are camped out in the opposition’s third, then when will they come to him? When will there be a Gyokeres match? On the evidence tonight, that’s rarely the case.