Oddsmakers had four wins and two trips to first place before finally getting on the board with the Cleveland Browns. But as the betting favorite for the first time this season, they are given a very slight advantage against the lowly Tennessee Titans in Week 7.
After being underdogs in every game this year and winning four of those contests, the Browns are about a 1.5-point favorite on the road against the Titans, who won their first game of the season and currently hold the No. 3 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. So it’s time to explore how it came about.
ESPN analyst Pamela Maldonado said there are two reasons why the Browns are favored against the Titans, and both have to do with their respective pass defense.
“Entering the week, the Browns are still one of the two underdogs this season, but this matchup backs up why that has changed. Cleveland is playing more man coverage and Cam Ward is struggling against that. Meanwhile, Watson is facing the Tennessee defense and allowing a lot of completions, giving Cleveland a better chance to move the ball,” and wrote enough touchdowns for Maldon to win.
The transition from a heavy man-to-man defense has been key to the Browns’ defensive turnaround under coordinator Mike Rutenberg. Cleveland’s offense can struggle at times, but Deshaun Watson found a way to get it going in the fourth quarter, leading a game-winning drive in each of their victories.
The simplest explanation is to say that Cleveland’s defense is better than Tennessee’s offense, and the Browns’ offense is better than the Titans’ defense. But in this case, it’s at least a step further than saying the Browns are a better team, which could show in the results over six weeks.
Cleveland beat the Carolina Panthers and two AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, to make it three wins over teams with winning records that are at least tied for first place in their division. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s only win is against the two-win Indianapolis Colts, and the Titans have lost to three sub-.500 teams: the New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans.
Despite all that, ESPN Analytics says the Browns and Titans each have a 50 percent chance to win this game, so it could be as close and tough as the oddsmakers predict.
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An Analyst Has a Confident Message for the Browns This Weekend