NBA MVP Prediction Markets: Who Will Actually Win in 2026-27?

The most coveted individual award in the NBA is the Most Valuable Player. Who will be the best player in the league this regular season? There are always many great candidates every year.

Here are the six favorites to win the MVP in 2027, according to Kalshi, a popular prediction market platform that allows users to trade real-world events, including NBA contracts.

Victor Vembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (34% chance, 34¢ Yes)

It looks like Victor Wembanyama is the one to be named the 2026-27 MVP. San Antonio will be vying for one of the best records in the Western Conference and the entire NBA. Still only 22, Wembanyama will look to improve after his first taste of playoff basketball last season. There may be selector fatigue for some players lower on this list.

If Wembanyama can stay healthy and meet the NBA’s 65-game requirement this year, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be the first player since Giannis Antetokounmpo (2020) to win both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards.

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (15% chance, 15¢ Yes)

The 31-year-old Serbian continues to amaze over the years. Jokic averaged a triple-double for the second consecutive season in 2026, while also leading the NBA in rebounds and assists per game. He has finished in the top two in MVP voting in each of the past six seasons.

You already know what to get from Cokic. But what could stop him from taking home a historic fourth trophy is how well his team plays. As Denver continues to decline, so will Nikola Jokic’s MVP chances. Unless Jokic can somehow get the Nuggets to one of the top two seeds in the West, it will be hard for the voters to get past Denver’s record.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (15% chance, 15¢ Yes)

The two-time reigning MVP will have a fantastic chance to win another. If Gilgeous-Alexander wins a third straight MVP, he would join the likes of Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell in that category.

SGA became one of the most consistent scorers of this era. Last year marked the fourth straight season he averaged at least 30 points per game on over 50 percent shooting. The Thunder will be in the mix to be the top seed again, so I think the only two things stopping Gilgeous-Alexander from a third straight MVP are Victor Wembanyama and voter fatigue.

Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (14% chance, 15¢ Yes)

With LeBron James off to Philadelphia, the reigning NBA scoring champion now has full reign of the Lakers. If Los Angeles’ Doncic can finish in the top three in the West while averaging close to a triple-double of 33 points, he will definitely be in the mix to win his first MVP award.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (7% chance, 7¢ Yes)

Minnesota is very confident this season with new addition LaMelo Ball. For the Timberwolves, it will all start with how Anthony Edwards sets the tone on both ends of the floor.

Like Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards’ MVP chances will depend on how he can lead his team in a deep Western conference.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat (7% chance, 7¢ Yes)

The top player traded in the 2026 offseason was the Greek Freak headed to South Beach. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat come into this year with a lot to prove. Antetokounmpo is still as good as ever, if not better than his previous two MVP campaigns in 2019 and 2020.

If he can finish the Heat near the top of the loaded Eastern Conference, expect Giannis to be in many MVP conversations.