From a sports betting perspective, everything that happens in sports has additional context. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and more, the sports news cycle will continue to have a major impact on the sports betting industry.
Our College Football Betting Buzz document, with contributions from David Purdum and Doug Greenberg, is designed to keep fans informed on the sports betting stories that drive conversation every week throughout the season.
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September 24: Bettors target windy conditions, leading to lower totals
David Purdum
As betting markets for Saturday’s college football game take shape earlier this week, savvy bettors are paying more attention to the meteorologist than Trinidad Chambliss or Archie Manning.
Northeastern is predicted to have strong wings on Saturday, which could impact Virginia Tech’s game against Boston College and James Madison’s game against Old Dominion. The aggregate scores for both games fell by six and five points respectively from the start as action from influential bettors quickly became apparent.
Chase Michaelson, who covers college football odds for Circa Sports, told ESPN he doesn’t put enough faith in the developing predictions, and bettors took advantage of the situation by betting on small spreads in both games starting Sunday and going into Monday. Virginia Tech-Boston College’s total score dropped from an opening 54 points to 48 points. James Madison-Old Dominion College’s overall score dropped from 49.5 to 44 on Wednesday before rising back to 45.
Predictions change and accuracy improves closer to match day, but Michaelson says bookmakers can’t really take a wait-and-see approach because bettors certainly won’t.
“I think we have to operate under the impression that the bad forecast is correct and we can always adjust to it,” Michelson said.
As of Thursday, the Saturday forecast for Virginia Tech Boston College in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, called for an 87 percent chance of rain and winds in excess of 20 mph.
Similar winds are expected in Norfolk, Va., where Old Dominion hosts James Madison.
The weather isn’t expected to be a big factor in this weekend’s high-profile SEC games, but teams are moving.
Texas is 4 points ahead of Tennessee on most sports betting sites. The Longhorns opened as high as -5.5. Florida defeated Mississippi by 3.5 points. The Gators opened with a majority odds of -3 points.
Sept. 19: Chambliss becomes Heisman favorite after defeating LSU
David Purdum
Mississippi State quarterback Trinidad Chambliss enters Saturday’s big game against LSU as a second-tier Heisman contender. He trails five other players at 13-1 odds at DraftKings to win college football’s most prestigious award.
Chambliss was the favorite at halftime of the Rebels’ primetime game against LSU.
Chambliss scored three touchdowns to lead Ole Miss to a thrilling 32-24 victory over LSU. He completed 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards and two passing touchdowns. His rushing touchdown broke a tie in the fourth quarter and gave the Rebels a victory over coach Lane Kiffin and the visiting Tigers.
Chambliss’ Heisman odds improved from 13-1 to +295, surpassing Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who has been the favorite since Week 1.
In the Hurricanes’ 33-20 victory over Wake Forest on Friday, Mensah completed his first 24 passes, completing 30-of-34 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. But it wasn’t enough to stop Chambliss.
Mensah now ranks second at +340, followed by Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (+900), Texas quarterback Archie Manning (+1,200) and Miami receiver Malachi Toney (+1,200).
Sept. 17: Sportsbooks adjust for LSU QB unexpected injury report
David Purdum
Betting markets don’t appear to believe LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. Leavitt was unexpectedly listed as questionable on the injury report released Wednesday night, causing some sportsbooks to temporarily halt betting on the game and adjust their odds.
The point differential fell from LSU to -3 after the injury report was released around 8:10 p.m. ET. As of Thursday morning, the line was back to LSU -2.5.
Las Vegas-based sportsbook Circa Sports initially took the game off the market to assess the situation, then lowered the betting limit and relisted the Tigers as 1-point favorites.
“We let the bettors guide us,” Chase Michaelson, who handles college football odds for Circa Sports, told ESPN in a text message Wednesday night.
Michaelson added that the next limit bet the book received in the game was LSU -2, leading him to move the betting line to -3 “to gauge Ole Miss’s appetite.” One bettor has the Rebels at +3, dropping the odds to 2.5.
Last week, Levitt overcame three interceptions and threw four touchdowns (three rushing) in the Tigers’ 45-14 victory over Louisiana Tech. He did not show any discomfort when interviewed by reporters afterwards. LSU coach Lane Kiffin did not mention Leavitt was dealing with any injuries during Monday’s press conference.
Freshman Hussan Longstreet and sophomore Landon Clark are Leavitt’s primary backups.
More money is bet on LSU-Ole Miss than any other college football game on DraftKings. As of Thursday morning, the game had attracted more than $2 million in transactions on the prediction market Kalshi.
Sept. 12: Michigan, Oklahoma beat punters
David Purdum
All week long, the betting public has been obsessed with the performance of two college football road favorites. In fact, Oklahoma (Michigan) and Oregon (Oklahoma State) have more money on the line than any other team at multiple sportsbooks by the time games tip off at noon ET on Saturday.
The money stays with the bookmaker.
There’s a ton of betting going on them this week ahead of their game against Michigan, which lucked out with a win over Western Michigan seven days ago. The Wolverines were given less attention than Oklahoma in early predictions released by some sportsbooks this summer, but perceptions have changed after their struggles against Western Michigan. When the new spread was announced last Sunday, the Sooners were favored by 5.5 points, and betting was focused on Oklahoma State.
On Friday, DraftKings reported that 96 percent of bets were on the Sooners. Sportsbooks also note that an outright win for Michigan State would be one of their most profitable decisions of the day.
Those familiar with the betting public’s track record should know what to expect. Michigan State never trailed and defeated Oklahoma State 17-10. It’s just the beginning of a challenging Saturday for bettors.
On Saturday morning, BetMGM reported that Oklahoma State attracted more bets and money than any other team. What’s the second most popular bet? Oregon State -23.5 vs. lowly Oklahoma State, which has lost 21 straight games to FBS opponents, including last week’s loss to Tulsa. The Ducks are around -2400 favorites. Bettors don’t shy away from paying a high price.
Bettors at Caesars Sportsbook in Louisiana Bet $100,000 on Oregon with odds of -2,500Ben Fox of Yahoo Sports said the Ducks have a chance to win a net $4,000 bonus if they win. At BetMGM, 95% of bets are on Oregon State, which has been a 24-point or more favorite since 1978 with a 57-0 record.
Oklahoma State defeated the Ducks 39-31.
“It turned out great,” one bookmaker told ESPN.