The first month of the regular season gave us a last-minute elbow in the ribs before closing the book.
The Week 4 slate was tough, especially when it came to betting against the spread. I just managed a 5-10-1 ATS record for the weekend. Rude. So, we managed it well everywhere. I went 10-6 straight and 2-2-1 ATS with five locks for the week. Inside those locks, we were part of an unlucky bunch that was denied by one of the worst shots of the young season.
In case you missed it, we had the Vikings covering the 11.5-point spread against the Dolphins. With two minutes left in regulation and Minnesota leading 15-10 at the Miami 11-yard line, Kyler Murray hit tight end TJ Hockenson in what should have been a wide-open touchdown. That would clear the spread and everyone with a Vikings ticket would go home happy. However, instead of scoring, Hockenson slid down, knowing he had enough to get to first and that Minnesota could just kill the clock and seal the win.
Pain.
Well, we’ll shake off this rough ATS loss and now turn our attention to Week 5, which, as always, begins with a week five lock.
Note: Kansas City and Carolina have a Week 5 bye.
2026 records
- Locks of the week ATS: 10-9-1
- ATS: 27-35-2
- ML: 42-22
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
I think someone on the Colts may have messed with the schedulers or something because they are getting a raw deal this week in the 5th Pittsburgh matchup. Indianapolis played in London last week and will now have to hit the road next week for international play and face a Steelers team that is off long after playing last Thursday night. That’s about as significant a rest advantage as you’ll find in off-weeks, and I think Pittsburgh takes advantage of it.
Don’t be fooled by last week’s 30-13 win in London; The Colts — outside of Jonathan Taylor — looked awful. Daniel Jones has yet to recapture the spark he had before tearing his Achilles in the first half of last season. So far this season, Jones has averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt with 4 total touchdowns and seven total turnovers. He also completed just one pass (in nine attempts) over 20 passing yards.
The Steelers, on the other hand, have been better at home than on the road this season, posting a 2-0 record and averaging 25 points per game. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense have shown sparks through the first month, and I expect to see more on Sunday against an Indy defense that has allowed the second-most yards per game in the NFL this season. The Steelers are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
Predicted score: Steelers 27, Colts 20
Choice: Steels -2.5
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sure, they couldn’t beat the Chiefs last week and go undefeated, but I think the Raiders still confirmed their strong start to the year in this game. They’re still a developing team, but they’ve been tied with Kansas City, who looks like one of the elite teams in the conference. The offense has played extremely well and is averaging 28.8 points per game, while Kirk Cousins is 7-1 SU and ATS in his last eight starts, tied for the league lead (11).
I think they have enough firepower to hang with New England on the road to stay within their numbers, especially with a field goal and the spread sitting on the hook. However, I think the Patriots carry the momentum from last Sunday’s big win in Buffalo into Week 5.
Drake Maye looked more confident in the pocket last week, especially when dealing with pressure. Against the Blitz, Maye was 9-of-14 for 118 passing yards and three touchdowns, good for a 130.4 passer rating. That’s close to the MVP runner-up we saw last year. He also used his legs more effectively. Maye could rebound against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed more points, yards and rushing yards per game this season.
Predicted score: Patriots 24, Raiders 21
Choice: Raiders +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
- Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry it for free)
The vibes around the Eagles are at or near an all-time low. They just blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead on the Rams in Week 4, got beat in remarkable fashion and saw Lane Johnson announce his retirement. It’s unclear whether Saquon Barkley (hamstring) or DeVonta Smith (hamstring) will play this week as Philly travels to London to face Jacksonville this weekend. If neither can go, it’s a crime after failing to convert one of 12 third-down chances last week. Going back to Week 3, Philly enters this game 0-17 in third straight.
Meanwhile, they face a Jaguars team that I believe is the best in the AFC right now. They are 3-1 and Philly has an offense that is the opposite. The Jags have the third-best third down conversion rate (51.1%), second-best red zone touchdown rate (81.8%) in the NFL entering Week 5, and Trevor Lawrence is playing like a sneaky MVP candidate. Of the 24 players who have thrown at least 100 passes this season, Lawrence is second in passer rating at 111.2.
The Jags are too hot to fade right now and face an Eagles team that feels like they’re about to roll.
Predicted score: Jaguars 30, Eagles 17
Choice: Jaguars -6.5
Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers
I told you this after Week 3, and it’s only gotten truer as the season has gone on — Chargers are a dumpster fire. They are 0-4 on the season and look very lifeless in the process. Don’t let the 30-23 final score against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks fool you; Los Angeles scored most of those points when the game was out of reach (outrebounded 27-6). Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) this season and is currently last in the NFL with a 70.6 passer rating (min. 100 pass attempts).
In fairness, the Broncos haven’t been much better than the Chargers, as their 2-2 start to the season has been disappointing under the hood. Specifically, they are off to an extremely flat start offensively, scoring just 13 points in the first half, which is last in the NFL. They rebounded with crazy second halves, scoring the fifth-most second-half points in the league (61). This at least suggests there is a spark that can be struck when cornered.
But this game will be won in the trenches. Specifically, the Broncos need to take advantage of a depleted Chargers offensive line. Even when they’re healthy, LA gives up the second-highest pressure (46.9%) in the NFL. They must now try to improve that number without left tackle Rashawn Slate, who is expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. Meanwhile, Joe Alt also has his status up in the air due to a neck injury he suffered last week. While they may not be as productive as they were last season, Denver’s pass rush pressure rate is 11th in the NFL (39.7%), so it could be a longer day at the office for Herbert.
Predicted score: Broncos 26, Chargers 20
Choice: Broncos -3.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
- Sunday at 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry it for free)
As I mentioned in my post last week Cover 32 columnsThe Packers just don’t have it, and I don’t see them as a real playoff threat in the NFC, let alone a division winner. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game (18.8) and last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.0), also tied for third (26%). Green Bay is also the second most penalized team in the league through the first month, so they’re not even going out of their way.
Meanwhile, Chicago has persevered through an injury to Caleb Williams, and both Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent (who will start Sunday) have performed at a high level in his place. The Bears rely on the running game with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, and the team leads the NFL with 196.3 rushing yards per game. That power could once again be the X-factor, as Green Bay is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed (7) this season.
Chicago doesn’t have the best splits when it comes to playing division opponents under Ben Johnson (2-5 SU and ATS), but I think they improve on that record and get a win after entering Lambeau Field as road favorites.
Predicted score: Bears 28, Packers 20
Choice: Bears -2.5
The rest of the gang
Pirates at Cowboys (Thursday)
Predicted score: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20
Choice: Cowboys -8.5
Bengals in Dolphins
Predicted score: Bengals 27, Dolphins 16
Choice: Bengals -7.5
Brown and the Jets
Predicted score: Jets 24, Browns 20
Choice: Jets -2.5
Texans at Titans
Predicted score: Texans 27, Titans 17
Choice: Texans -7
Vikings in the Saints
Predicted score: Vikings 23, Saints 20
Choice: Vikings -1.5
Giants in commanders
Predicted score: Commanders 26, Giants 23
Choice: Giants +3.5
Lions in cardinals
Predicted score: Lions 33, Cardinals 30
Choice: Cardinals +4.5
49ers at Seahawks
Predicted score: Seahawks 27, 49ers 23
Choice: Seahawks -3
Crows in falcons
Predicted score: Falcons 24, Ravens 20
Choice: Falcons -2.5
Scores at Rams (Monday)
Predicted score: Rams 28, Bills 24
Choice: Aries -2.5