Now that the dust has begun to settle on the latest VAR drama in the Premier League, perhaps Manchester United can get a clearer understanding. Were Matt Donoghue and his assistant VAR Blake Antrobus a big factor in Sunday’s 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City? Absolutely, but they are not the only ones, and perhaps not even decisive.
The most profound thing is that all the problems that arose when United found themselves with just over an hour of game time were nothing new to them. If anything, they may be the difficulties inherent in playing in the style Michael Carrick wants.
What is indisputable is that when Phil Foden’s 23rd-minute red card put United in an extremely advantageous position, United’s attack was sluggish and unpretentious, possessing the ball too slowly and not having much in the way of ideas to open up low blocks. After the red card and before Erling Haaland’s goal, United had 105 touches in the final third, while City had 37 touches but only seven shots on goal, for a total expected goals of 0.25. Even after that controversial winner, it didn’t really seem to make sense how this team attacked with no space to run, and their only real high-value start came when Brian Mbeumo denied Gianluigi Donnarumma in the 95th minute.
Premier League referees had terrible weekend: Manchester United apologizes, Arsenal seek explanation
James Benge
The real experience of this defeat at Old Trafford is unlike any of United’s other league games this season, where draws, wins and defeats have combined to give the club their worst start to a top-flight campaign since 1992. Sidebar, don’t you think you hear something about Manchester United every year around September or October?
Manchester City’s experience was different as the home side were thrust into a game situation at kick-off that they might not have reasonably expected to play. In Carrick’s XI, Youri Tielemans prefers a deep-field role alongside Kobbie Mainoo and looks designed to provide quick forwards in City’s dangerous transition defence. When United gained the man advantage, everything came to light.
Listening to Enzo Maresca’s explanation afterwards, it seemed too easy to coach against Manchester United. “They love transitions and space behind them, but the game became more difficult for us and we just fell behind and there was no space behind us and no more transitions, and that’s why the game became more difficult for them as well.”
cbs sports
Manchester United have proven this season that they have the players to be devastating on the counter-attack, with Bruno Fernandes brutally punishing Ipswich’s mistakes on a difficult day for the newly promoted side. Their problem is a possession game that mirrors their head coach’s career. An (inaccurate) criticism of Carrick’s players was that he was too lateral a midfielder, controlling the game but not providing the kind of breakthroughs that the Barcelona midfielder, who was the benchmark of the game, did.
His side so far this season have been more caricatures than Carrick. As they accumulate, they seem to grow slower and slower. In Ruben Amorim’s 20 league games last season, United attempted an average of 460 passes per game. In Carrick’s 21 games in charge, they attempted 483 attempts and were more successful. However, fewer and fewer passes are made going forward, and fewer and fewer passes are considered progressive. The average time of possession under Carrick is 10 per cent longer than that of his predecessor, who was just beginning to establish an improved attacking structure at the end of his relationship with his employer.
Manchester United’s game has become more complicated since Carrick started pre-season. The average time of possession in the Premier League last season was 24.4 seconds and the number of passes was 5.8. Now, those numbers have risen to 30.5 and 7.6. Perhaps that’s a reflection of the games this team has been through, but it’s also in line with Carrick’s plans for a Middlesbrough side.
This may be a departure from the meta, but there is nothing to say with certainty that a tactical approach that aspires to consistent possession will not work in the Premier League in 2026-27. There are some signs that this may not necessarily work for United this season. Ridiculous 4.77 expected goals aside, they made a big bet against an invincible Ipswich side who have only managed a full expected goals once, and that was while chasing newly promoted Hull City. The answer seems to be a lack of cunning to create good shots. For as long as we have data (going back to the 2020-21 season), the average shot has an xG value of 0.11. So far this season, Manchester United has a mediocre score of 0.099. If we exclude that game against Ipswich Town (which may have been an anomaly in retrospect), the score is 0.069, which ranks 93rd out of 96 teams in Europe’s top five leagues this season.
cbs sports
This wasn’t an issue last season, when United’s shooting quality was average. Bruno Fernandez was once again the best player in the league last season. In his prime, he was the ideal balancer for Carrick’s cautious presence on the ball after early wins over Manchester City and Arsenal. You can slowly build security because you know the moment the ball gets to Fernandez, he’s going to inject jet fuel into your offense. The Portuguese midfielder averaged an assist every 117 minutes in the league last season under Michael Carrick, a figure that is impressive compared to his xA but reflects the fact that he created four and a half chances per 90 minutes.
At the start of the season, Fernandes’ performances have dropped from England’s best player (perhaps in the sport) to the level of the likes of Rayan Cherki and Martin Odegaard. No wonder United’s attack looked overly cautious and quiet when you remove the Ipswich game from the equation again.
If this all seems too pessimistic for Carrick, it’s worth offering a counter-view. After all, caution and quiet are exactly what United need when Amorim’s combustible reign comes to an end. The then-interim head coach scored 39 points in 17 games, a record that would surpass champions Arsenal in 38 games or more, and Champions League qualification became a non-event.
While many of his predecessors would have been furious at the VAR official’s failure to detect that Enzo Fernandez was in an offside position, Carrick called on his side to “get on with it”. A little lackluster is no bad thing for a club whose first instinct is to start sprinting as soon as they take two steps forward. That transition period ensured United didn’t finish too high in the table, and it’s worth noting that there wasn’t much bitter reaction to his form in the first five games of the season.
In keeping with the players he is, Carrick asked for a careful assessment. He had a big picture in his mind when he was on the court, and now that he’s watching from a distance, that picture looks, well, good. Even after a slow start – which, given all the discounts above, actually did include the rout against Ipswich – United still have the profile of the fourth or fifth best team in England. That might be enough to keep them in the Champions League and keep things going while they begin the task necessary to further establish themselves as title contenders in the post-Fernandez era.
It may not be pretty, and it may lead to more promising chances being frustratingly wasted like Saturday’s game against Manchester City, but that doesn’t mean Carrick isn’t getting them on the right track. It’s just that the process may be slower and more cautious than ideal.
How to watch Manchester United vs Brighton odds
date: Tuesday 16th September | time: 3 p.m. ET
Place: Old Trafford Stadium—Manchester, England
live streaming: Paramount+
Odds: Manchester United -133; Draw +280; Brighton +275