If there is a strong correlation between spending and results, one might expect Tuesday’s Carabao Cup tie between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur to be an early-season clash between free-scoring players. Instead, both sides have invested nearly $1 billion since the start of last season to strengthen their attacks, with both sides trying to improve their scoring when they face off at Anfield on Tuesday night.
For Liverpool, the crisis is not that urgent. On paper, their six goals through the first four games are more than enough, the eighth-highest total of any team in the division. Their 6.72 expected goals average ranks sixth in the division, and despite removing penalties from the equation, Andoni Illaura’s side rank ninth with an expected goals average of just under one and a half points per game. That’s not bad in itself for a team that has lost last season’s top scorer Hugo Ekitic and is adjusting to the demands of a new head coach.
However, there are caveats that make these early-season numbers paint a more concerning picture. The first and most obvious thing is that Liverpool’s schedule is pretty good to begin with. Okay, it’s tricky to start the season with an exciting away game against Newcastle, but if that’s your toughest assignment in four games, then this should be a period of improved goalscoring and expected goals. Conversely, Liverpool’s expected goals against Nottingham Forest and Fulham are 1.3 when chasing the game.
Those are middling numbers for any team aspiring to finish in the top six, and even worse for a side like Liverpool, for whom the post-Klopp era is built on high-priced attackers. 98 minutes is too short a time to evaluate Bradley Bakla, and it will be some time before Ekitic returns to the impressive level he displayed before suffering an Achilles injury last season.
As for the other two who may not see the field Tuesday night, the spotlight is even brighter. This at least has a more favorable impact on Alexander Isak, who trails only Erling Haaland in the scoring charts with just three games into his first four games. As with the entire team, there are questions about the quality of the opponents, but Isaac has had three shots on goal in every league game so far, except for the win over Ipswich Town, when he had already scored in the previous two games. He didn’t have the same shooting pleasure against Atletico Madrid, but that probably doesn’t mean much at this point, especially since he got an assist in that game.
There are also encouraging signs from Florian Wirtz. For a possession-oriented team like Liverpool, averaging nearly 40 high presses per 90 minutes is encouraging, especially under Illaura who demands so much from players off the ball. The manager will no doubt be impressed by the 21 ball recoveries, the most in the squad.
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Those statistics don’t change Wirtz’s broader story, however. As with last season, the overall performance was more impressive than skeptics gave it credit for, but when you’re buying $135 million worth of talent and proving he’s capable of leading a team to the Bundesliga title, the bar above needs to be more consistently bright green. Even the 87th or 90th percentile isn’t the goal here, let alone the output you actually need. In the Premier League, one assist isn’t enough.
Then again, that’s one more than Tuesday’s opponent. Four games into the season, Tottenham Hotspur share the dubious honor of being the only team in the Premier League who have yet to score a goal with newly promoted Coventry City. Currently, Roberto De Zerbi has gained enough trust in keeping Tottenham ahead last season that he can joke about running clean sheets. On its current trajectory, it won’t last long.
Through their first four games, Spurs’ expected goals against is just 3.45, 18th in the division, but it’s curious how much they do before shooting. De Zerbi’s side are very good at playing in the areas they want to occupy, averaging around 77 more touches per game in the final third than in the defensive third. The number of touches in the box is equally impressive, with Tottenham having the eighth-highest number of touches in the box, with around 30 touches per game. The likes of Jan-Paul van Herk and Mateusz Fernandez seemed to have an immediate solution to ball progress at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The ball is getting into dangerous areas; just nothing is happening, a classic example is the 0-0 draw with Everton, all the possession and territory did not stop this game and Spurs’ opponents had the best chances.
Roberto De Zerbi says Tottenham struggle to ‘unlock themselves’ after four consecutive games without scoring
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Now, perhaps these territorial statistics tell us more about the state of play than Tottenham Hotspur. In every game, with perhaps the exception of the draw against Nottingham Forest, Tottenham’s opponents have an incentive to protect with a favorable result. Again, such a strategy never seems to be a particularly risky one. The attack against Everton, which includes a front three on whom the club are prepared to spend more than £50m – in the case of Omar Mamouche, a loan option expected to become an obligation – is struggling to put any real pressure on the target.
Right-back Pedro Polo has featured in just two games and is one of Tottenham’s leading goalscorers in the Premier League. Mickey Moore, now on loan at Cologne, only played 90 minutes, but he was the only player to have more than one shot on target. Signing Manchester City’s cast-off players could risk backfiring for Tottenham. Savio looked much like he did at the Etihad Stadium, a dynamic winger who couldn’t create enough good shots for others, or even many at all. Marmoush also looks familiar, shimmery, but the final product is light.
In an ideal world, a cup tie might provide Spurs with a chance to rejuvenate, as they did in the 5-1 win over Charlton Athletic, but De Zerby stressed on Saturday that it should not be factored into the assessment of the team so far. James Maddison and Mohamed Kudus could be waiting for more minutes after coming off the bench on Saturday. Richarlison was eligible for the game but relations between the club and the would-be player soured to the point where Tottenham’s only suitable striker capable of scoring more than 15 Premier League goals was not considered.
It’s also possible that Elora will change his attack style. Leo Ngumogha started the season on the right wing but does not appear to have been clearly occupied and he may be in contention. The same could be said for Cody Gakpo, who while yet to really see action at any position, could at least cover some minutes at center when Isaac needs a break. The need to attack isn’t as obvious for Liverpool as it is for their opponents, but at this early stage of the season neither side can really argue that they’re getting much bang for their buck.
How to watch Liverpool vs Tottenham odds
date: Tuesday 15th September | time: 3 p.m. ET
Place: Anfield – Liverpool, UK
live streaming: Paramount+
Odds: Liverpool -125; Draw +260; Tottenham +290