October 18, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Stones midfielder Kat Rader (22) controls the ball during the second half against the Orlando Pride at Shell Energy Stadium. Mandatory credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
It’s fitting that the two clubs featured in this week’s column will face off in National Women’s Football League action at the weekend. The Houston Dash had two extra weeks to turn around their already eliminated status, while the Orlando Pride needed three wins and plenty of shutouts to stay on track for survival. After a 2-1 loss at ShellEnergy Stadium and the Seattle Reign’s loss to the Chicago Stars on Sunday, the door to the 2026 playoffs has been closed on the Pride, the sixth team to suffer that fate this year.
As we did last week, we’ll unpack the chapters that the NWSL’s top two expansion sides have dealt with this year – a few ups, a lot of downs, and how they might move on to the next phase of their journey. We’ll compare preseason expectations to current reality using an average of two different projection models: a model based on player performance from American Soccer Analysis and Trevor Larner’s historical team performance model.
Access the best women’s soccer coverage all year round
Start a FREE 7-day trial of The Equalizer Extra for industry-leading reports and insights from the USWNT, NWSL and beyond.
