The biggest takeaway from the College Football Playoff Committee’s first-round rankings was Notre Dame’s seven-point slide from the AP poll on Sunday. The media pundits all chimed in with the same message: if Notre Dame loses to Miami this week, they will be eliminated from playoff contention.
While I’d be happy to eliminate Notre Dame with their own special rules, I think we’re too early to make Saturday’s matchup an elimination game. For starters, all this talk is pointless if Notre Dame wins a game they’re favored by seven points. After this week, two of their last three games will be in South Bend, with the only road trip coming at Syracuse. I really don’t see any more losses on the schedule for them.
However, more than just winning and ending this conversation, I still think the Irish can make the playoffs with a win. First, their current rating may still be too high. They’re actually above a lot of two-loss Big Ten and SEC teams that already have wins lined up on their resumes. Sure, another big game loss could hurt them, but how far down would they go if they lost to the nation’s consensus best team?
Alabama is currently ranked No. 5 in the CFP and have looked ineffective outside of an early season win over Kentucky, a team that could easily end the season with four losses. ESPN claimed that Alabama’s ranking was due to their big win over Mississippi State. The same Bulldog team looked incompetent with or without Kamario Taylor.
But for Notre Dame, the metrics still favor them even without impressive wins on their resume. They are 11th in SOR, 1st in FPI and 6th in Game Control. As mentioned, they are also -7 against the number one team in the country. Even if Notre Dame loses, they can pick up a win against a solid SMU team and be back in the top 12 by the end of the season.
The Big Ten and SEC have been cannibalizing each other at every turn this year, and that won’t change down the stretch. Unless the committee does something shocking like knock Notre Dame out of the top 20 with a loss, they’ll still be in the mix when the final polls come down. If they finish in the top 12, they will be eligible for the playoffs due to the dumb rules. Perhaps most importantly, after keeping the Irish out last season, you’ll see the powers that be do whatever it takes to make the playoffs in one of the biggest television markets.