The Baltimore Ravens will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9 on Thursday Night Football.
The Ravens are currently in last place in the AFC North with a 4-4 record. The Jaguars are 5-2, leading the AFC South.
There are several aspects of this game that work in Baltimore’s favor. The biggest is the location of the game.
The Jaguars have benefited from playing most of their games at home in 2026. They are averaging just 18 points per game in contests outside of Jacksonville. They also held their opponents to only 18 points per game in these competitions.
Jacksonville has one of the best defenses in the NFL and while they are worse on the road, they still play at an elite level. Overall, they are holding opponents to just .266 points per game, second in the league.
Baltimore quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are out this week, leaving rookie Joe Fagnano to pull the trigger. He played in relief against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8, throwing for 91 yards and one interception on 21 passing attempts.
TNF Week 9 Picks
Fagnano was an emergency defender last week despite his lack of success. He will get a full week of training as a starter and he is coming off a strong pre-season.
Ultimately, I expect Jacksonville to fill the box, shut down Derrick Henry, and Fagnano to beat them. It’s unlikely that Baltimore will find a ton of offensive success, as it depends on how much Jacksonville can score.
The Jaguars haven’t traveled well offensively, but are allowing the fourth-most points per game (.473) in the NFL this season. I suspect their struggles have more to do with limited games than their road offense being significantly worse.
The Ravens struggled to find success on defense in 2026 as well. They are 24th in the NFL allowing .408 points per game. Overall, the Ravens are allowing 25.4 points per game this season.
Baltimore’s offensive struggles could turn into opportunities for Jacksonville’s offense. Rounds or short fields will favor the Jaguars, and I don’t expect Fagnano to be a strong option after a week of practice.
Trevor Lawrence and company need to find enough of an end zone to beat even that wide of a spread.
Where to bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 spread | -120
2026 NFL Season Wagering Record: 10-14