Andoni Iraola could afford a rotational team against Chelsea tonight, but he can’t make the No.10 mistake as his selection at Anfield is his team’s first draft for Arsenal on Sunday.
“Liverpool” will host Xabi Alonso’s team in the fourth round of the League Cup on November 1 at 20:00, while the champions “Arsenal” will meet on November 1 at 16:30. Iraola has already said there will be changes, and the injury list has a lot to choose from for him.
Florian Wirtz has a foot problem, Dominik Szoboszlai has a muscle problem, while Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni are out. That leaves a squad with a lot of bodies and very few easy answers, so the Liverpool vs Chelsea pick is really four separate questions.
The first of these is the question no one wants to answer: Do you gamble at Wirtz?
Should Liverpool risk Florian Wirtz against Chelsea?
No. Wirtz has reportedly allayed fears of something serious, but “not serious” and “ready for the match” are different things, and this is a League Cup tie sandwiched between a four-match winning streak and Liverpool’s biggest league game of the autumn. Even a player at 70 percent is a risk you’ll buy on Sunday, not tonight.
It is also worth remembering how Liverpool won. Their only defeat this season was a 3-0 loss to Manchester City and since then they have beaten LASK Linz 6-3, Brentford 2-1, Villarreal 4-3 and Brighton 2-0. These are not controlled victories. Throwbacks and target swaps are a case in point, and when games are this long, the last thing you want is a half-assed creator.
If Wirtz is out, who plays at number 10 for Liverpool?
There are three valid answers, and each says something different about Iraola’s priorities.
Ryan Gravenberch: receiver
Ryan Gravenberch’s position in the hole is his ability to take the ball on the half turn in tight pockets that few quarterbacks in the league are better at. The claim is the last third. His decisions can be very slow, his passing isn’t as sharp as Wirtz’s in and around D, and he’s only been asked to play right guard once this season, which shows how wide the options are. Regular readers will know that Liverpool’s right-back problem is its own story.
McConnell: runner
Sports Mole have predicted McConnell’s starting XI behind Lewis Koumas, which would give Liverpool a more athletic pressing 10 that could play into Chelsea’s set-up. Risk is creativity. McConnell and Koumas are asking a lot of two players with very few big minutes to pick out a Chelsea side, even one full of rotating, physical midfielders.
Cody Gakpo: the left field answer
The most interesting option is Cody Gakpo, who is closer to number 10 than Liverpool’s other wide forwards in terms of frame and passing game. Iraola has used him extensively this season and playing him centrally would allow the manager to fit Rio Ngumoha, Bradley Barcola and Gakpo into a front line. Gakpo and Ngumoha scored twice against Villarreal last week, so the link is already there.
Are Mac Allister and Nyoni the right Liverpool midfield pairing?
Whoever plays in front of them appears to be sitting on the base. Alexis Mac Allister has been the squad’s best midfielder this season and Nyoni is a natural partner as both are more progressive passers than ball carriers. This balance is important. Line up two midfielders who both want to push forward and leave the back line open to the first opposite side.
The biggest concern is workload. The desire to rest Mac Allister is real. But with Szoboszlai doubtful and Wirtz not fully bent, Iraola can’t rest every creative option at once. Fire up Mac Allister, give it 60 minutes and fire up fresher legs.
Which Liverpool defenders should Iraola rest?
Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk are both candidates for a night off and Mamardashvili is expected to score. Ronald Araujo, who played on the right against Brighton in the absence of Frimpong and Bradley, is a tougher challenge as he almost single-handedly mans that wing.
The logical split is to protect Van Dijk while starting Joe Gomez. Whether Gómez plays at center back or right-back is where the knock-on effects begin, as each shuffle changes who plays next to Araújo.
Kerkez or Tsimikas in the left wing defender?
This is a challenge of the greatest lasting importance. Kostas Tsimikas is arguably the best player in the squad and the more natural point guard, so this is the obvious cup game to start him. Milos Kerkez is the more reliable defender, and if Iraola picks him against Arsenal on Sunday, tonight is a kind of low-stakes night where the other option should get minutes so he can be ready in case of injury.
Can Isak and the wingers all start?
The first debate is Alexander Isak vs. Koumas. The Sports Mole preview suggests Isak could get a break, and the logic is clear: Isak has scored six goals in seven Premier League games and Liverpool need him fresh on Sunday. Iraola said the striker “feels the trust of everyone” at the club and that trust is based on his performance.
Chelsea defender three against Koumas would be isolated, three against one would not be close enough to support him. If Alonso goes with the four, he has more room to run. It’s a decision that depends on Chelsea’s form.
Ngumoha is expected to start after scoring goals in Europe, but I expected Gakpo and Barcola to carry the bigger load against Arsenal, with Ngumoha used as a replacement option.
What does Chelsea’s squad news mean for Liverpool?
Visitors have weakened. Cole Palmer was sent off for Tottenham after Reece James and Emiliano Martinez were injured and Joao Pedro has a thigh problem that will keep him out for several weeks. Sports Mole’s predicted Chelsea XI has Penders in goal, Danny Welbeck and Morgan Rogers in support up front, with Estevao Willian hoping for his first start in over a month.
Chelsea are one place and two points behind Liverpool in the league, have scored the third most goals in the division with 17 goals and have the third worst defensive record with 15 conceding. This is the profile of a side Liverpool could do damage if they stay disciplined, and it echoes what Alonso said after the Tottenham defeat: “We need to look for solutions, not excuses.”
Author’s opinion
My team: Mamardashvili, Araújo, Gomez, Jacquet, Tsimikas; Mac Allister, Nyoni; Ngumoha, Gakpo (as false 10), Barcola; Isak 60 minutes. Wirtz remains on the bench unless the game calls for him, and Szoboszlai is nowhere near the lineup.
It’s not the most conservative choice, but it keeps the team’s best finisher in the squad without risking him for 90 minutes, and it gives a real glimpse into how Iraola Gakpo can respond in the hole. Win and Arsenal’s choice is almost self-selecting. Lose with a weakened side and questions about squad depth will be loud ahead of Sunday.