What Manchester City’s punishment could change

City’s situation could reshape the Premier League table if tough sanctions come into effect. From losing teams to championship contentions, the ripple effects will be felt across the division.

I think there’s a good chance City could find themselves stuck in the proverbial creek without a paddle.

Rumor has it that they will know their punishment before the start of next season. Unlike Everton and Forest, not only were City more accused, but several of them related to their active attempts to hinder the investigation.

Why case size matters

Common sense dictates that you would only try to thwart an investigation of potential cheating if you know they will find evidence that you cheated. Even if they were able to hide this evidence, they could not hide the fact that they were deliberately trying to slow down or stop the investigation. They had absolutely no chance of avoiding being found guilty of these charges.

There are rumors suggesting a 60 point deduction. The rules do not allow the Premier League to unilaterally relegate a club. First, the Championship must agree to cancel any club that is forced to dissolve. But they can deduct enough points to effectively guarantee them relegation, although the Championship would still have to accept them (although the chances of them refusing seem slim).

Appeals, Impact and Consequences

If City were relegated due to a significant points deduction, they would certainly appeal the decision to every possible governing body, and each would have to uphold the Premier League’s ruling in order to survive.

The problem here is that every new entity involved creates a new opportunity for wealthy state-owned clubs to have their way so that the ruling is in their favour.

There are two possible outcomes for Manchester City if they are forced to accept the ruling. The owners either decide to cut their losses and sell, or they stay on and try to salvage their image. I don’t want to guess which way they will go. We must remember that Manchester City’s owners purchased the club as part of a PR campaign to improve their public image. The consequences of this would be contrary to their intentions and maybe they would run away, or maybe they would stay and try to sort out their image.

what this means on the pitch

Either way, there will be a huge impact on the club and its ability to compete in the short term. You might imagine that Pep doesn’t want to stay in the Championship for another season, and similarly many players would want to move on. They’ll also need to let many players go in order to comply with the financial constraints they face due to lower earnings, and to comply with the tournament’s FFP rules (which are actually slightly different than those in the EPL). You can imagine that due to their possible relegation, they will be forced to keep a clean slate in their accounting.

If they can postpone it via appeal (which they almost certainly will), that could happen next season or the season after that.

You can imagine that this would keep them from being a realistic title challenger for the next 4-5 years, they would be relegated and have to regain EPL status and then need to build an EPL title challenging team (while staying within FFP range).

Shifting balance of power in Premier League

It means a power shift in the Premier League. I think we will see Arsenal and Liverpool continue to be title challengers, and if we continue to rebuild as effectively as we have over the past year or so, then we can be title challengers as well. To be honest, I think if we can get a couple of top midfielders this summer and Liverpool can sort out their defence, then I don’t think there’s much difference between us, Liverpool and Arsenal in terms of squad and ability. Who ends up being the dominant team among us will depend on future recruiting, the development of the existing squad, and injuries.

I think Chelsea, Villa and Newcastle will form the core of the second group looking to qualify for the Champions League. Tottenham, if they can avoid relegation and find someone with vision and acumen to run the club, have a way into this group (although they’ll need to avoid relegation this season to get in). I suspect that if the top three have a bad season or start to decline slightly, Chelsea and Newcastle are the most likely to emerge as potential title challengers. I think Villa will be in real competition financially and if they lose Emery they could drop back to mid-table.

Then you have a well-functioning mid-table club who can challenge for European places if they have a good year. Clubs like Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Everton (who we shouldn’t underestimate given the income they get from new stadiums).

Then, depending on City’s situation, they could move into Group Three when they get promoted from the Championship and still have the financial backing of their current owners. As the season goes on, they will start to re-establish themselves at the top of the table.

I think the new financial rules are starting to take effect. It is becoming increasingly difficult for clubs to break into the upper echelons, while creating a more level playing field across the league. Clubs like us and Liverpool that have huge global followings, and those with new big stadiums that bring in bigger revenues (Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton) are the ones most likely to keep challenging at the top of the table. Clubs like Newcastle, Manchester City and Chelsea don’t quite know how they will challenge now that their wealthy owners can no longer help close the gap as effectively as they have over the past decade or so. Although all three are clubs with large stadiums that can bring in more revenue than many other Premier League clubs, this should put them firmly in the second group. If they can continue to increase their global appeal, then they might be able to become a real consistent title challenger.

Overall though I suspect the new financial constraints will bring about a more level playing field and we will see clubs like Manchester United and Liverpool who are probably always going to be title challengers (or are a few signings away from being title challengers) and the remaining clubs which while Arsenal are at the top now could be Chelsea in a few years time, or Newcastle, or Tottenham (as crazy as that sounds) depending on how the team is built and what peaks and declines there are.

Written by Shapi on April 4, 2026 13:26:19

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