The moving portion of the schedule for college football’s Power Four programs is over.
Week 5 brings tougher conference matchups in the top 25, and several contenders are about to find out if early season success will travel.
Here’s where the potential for an upset every weekend gets interesting. Teams with superior rosters can survive a sluggish quarter against overmatched opponents, but the margin for error shrinks away from home, and there are several undefeated top-10 SEC teams heading into Saturday as narrow favorites.
While the College Football Playoff picture is still taking shape, the task is to come out of Week 5 with a win. Last week, we had Michigan and Louisville blowout home runs, and both were beaten while Iowa and Wake Forest made their own climbs into the national conversation.
The teams facing the most worrisome matchups this weekend are starting to bite the tables. One team that narrowly missed this group this week is Ohio State, a 13.5-point favorite at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are undefeated after beating Michigan, while the Buckeyes are already undefeated after a Week 2 upset at Texas.
College football odds, predictions: Ohio State leads Iowa, Alabama, Mississippi State in Week 5
Brad Crawford
Penn State
They will oppose: North-West (+2.5)
Everything was building towards this game as the Wildcats at Northwestern this season open the new Ryan Field on friday night. It was supposed to be a nationally ranked Penn State team coming to Evanston, Illinois, but the Nittany Lions couldn’t hold on to a second half lead against Wisconsin last week. Northwestern was competitive in a 29-23 loss to Indiana, and the offense is playing with an overabundance of confidence thanks to scheme adjustments made this fall by Chip Kelly and quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht is coming off his worst performance as a starting Power Four player in four seasons after going 12 of 29 for 114 yards and an interception without a touchdown pass against the Badgers.
“He’s a competitor, he’s tough, he handles really well. He shoots the ball really well and he’s a winner at the end of the day,” Northwestern coach David Brown said of Becht this week. “I’m excited to continue our process and continue to identify a limitation or a weakness, but it’s really hard to find one right now. I think that’s the ultimate compliment — the guy’s a winner.”
No. 7 Alabama
They will oppose: No. 16 Mississippi State (+5.5)
It would be no shock if the best quarterback duel of the weekend, Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor, combined for eight touchdowns in this contest. Despite going undefeated this season, Alabama’s defense is giving up yards at times, and the Bulldogs are coming off their first 25-game win streak in three years under Jeff Lebby. The Heisman race takes center stage in Starkville, with the winner closing in on Jeremiah Smith and Darian Mensah.
Kalen DeBoer vs. ranked teams in Alabama
#2 against Georgia | 2024 | W, 41-34 |
No. 11 Tennessee | 2024 | L, 24-17 |
No. 21 vs. Missouri | 2024 | W, 34-0 |
15 in LSU | 2024 | W, 42-13 |
No. 5 in Georgia | 2025 | W, 24-21 |
No. 16 vs. Vanderbilt | 2025 | W, 30-14 |
No. 14 Missouri | 2025 | W, 27-24 |
vs. No. 11 Tennessee | 2025 | W, 37-20 |
vs. No. 11 Oklahoma | 2025 | L, 23-21 |
No. 3 Georgia | 2025 (SEC title game) | L, 28-7 |
No. 8 Oklahoma | 2025 (CFP first round) | W, 34-24 |
vs. #1 Indiana | 2025 (CFP 1/4 final) | L, 38-3 |
No. 8 Florida
They will oppose: No. 25 Missouri (+5.5)
Why is there a line here for a red-hot team that is still behind in the national rankings despite a fourth-quarter fumble at Mississippi State last week? This is where you lean towards the oddsmakers. The emotional high of destroying Ole Miss in Week 4 will be difficult for the Gators to handle on the road against a team that plays a similar offensive style focused on the offensive line.
Assuming Florida finishes the season as one of the top teams in the SEC, a win here for Eli Drinkwitz would be his first with the Tigers against an opponent that finished the season with a winning record in league play. I had to triple check that stat this week to make sure it was accurate — 0-16.
No. 17 Tennessee
They will oppose: vs. Auburn (+7.5)
Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin likes to turn up the heat on defense, and after seeing film of the Texas defensive line feasting on the Vols last week, that will be something he plans for Tennessee and quarterback Faizon Brandon this weekend. That said, it would have been more of a concern for the Vols if this game had been played at The Plains. Neyland Stadium should create a buzzing environment and make things difficult for an Auburn offense that has been up and down through the first four weeks of the season.
There’s also a homecoming angle here for Tigers head coach Alex Golesh. Golesh spent several years as the offensive coordinator on Josh Heupel’s staff and knows what the unit likes to do and how it is run. If there’s any coach in the SEC who can contend with Tennessee’s strengths on this side of the football, it should be the one who helps set it up in 2021 and 2022.
No. 20 Houston
They will oppose: vs. UCF (+12.5)
Are the Knights under Scott Frost again? Their only loss this season was a 12-7 setback at unbeaten Pittsburgh on Sept. 12, and last week’s Big 12 opener win over TCU was remarkable. Frost already showed some playmaking skills before this game after refusing to wear his team’s home jerseys in response to Houston’s whiteout request. The Cougars instead wear a light blue alternative. With a visit to Kansas State looming in Houston, the Cougars should avoid overlooking UCF.