Rays vs Guardians Game 5 Predictions: Best bets for the ALCS

Yesterday, Tampa Bay’s lineup came alive in Game 4, beating the Rays 7-3 over the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the ALCS now tied at two games, we are guaranteed at least two more ALCS games for our viewing and betting pleasure.

So how will Game 5 go? Is it time to ride Rice or is Cleveland the best bet? Here are my top MLB bets for Game 5 of the ALCS:

ALCS Game 5: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

ML beams at -128

I originally planned to pick the Guardians ML at +106 because I saw him as a solid value play in a game Cleveland could definitely win. Overall, the lineup has been solid in the postseason, and Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA in the regular season) is one of the best pitchers in baseball (and certainly on the Guardians roster).

But then I took a closer look at this game.

The Rangers haven’t been great at home this season, going 41-40 SU and 37-41 in the regular season. They haven’t fared much better in the postseason either (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS). Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been solid on the road in the regular season (43-38 SU and 44-37 ATS) and in the playoffs (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS).

Messick hasn’t been great in the postseason. He gave up 7 runs (four earned) in three games over just 11 2/3 innings. His longest outing of the postseason came last Tuesday on the road against the Rays (5 innings, six hits, 3 runs, 0 earned runs).

Tampa Bay had 11 hits in Game 4. If the squad can keep the momentum going in Game 5, they could chase down Messi early. That lead could be all they need to win.

Over 6.5 at -118

Tampa Bay’s offense woke up. With Game 5 today and no rest, the Guardians will need a solid outing from Messick to give the bullpen a break. But with how Messick has performed in the postseason, that might not work.

While Tampa Bay has yet to name a starter, Drew Rasmussen is in line to start. But the Rangers beat him and the Rays bullpen by seven runs. Now, I’m not saying they’ll do it again or that the Rays will dominate Messic.

However, with the way both teams are playing, it is not hard to see this game ending up with either team winning 4-3 or 5-2 and over 6.5 runs. If the line reaches seven runs or 7.5 I would think twice about this bet.

But definitely take OVER at 6.5.