Ohio State has never been on the ropes

Ohio State has not been ranked lower than seventh in the College Football Playoff rankings since the rankings were created in 2014. You could be forgiven for assuming it would be an act of the football gods for the Buckeyes to ever miss the 12-team format. However, with the world having a sense of humor, Ohio State is anything but playoff bound this year.

The situation escalated even faster than when USC freshman Mark Bowman blocked Buckeye safety Jaylen McClain on a 70-yard completion route Saturday night. Ohio State’s second loss can They haven’t eliminated their room for error, as parity in the Big Ten and SEC can put a three-loss team (or two) into the field. But any team that loses Game 3 surrenders control of its own destiny, and the Buckeyes still have four contests against flawed but tough opponents. With a backup QB for the QB to stay on the field indefinitely, danger lurks everywhere. A once-unthinkable 8-4 season is out of the question for a team with regular national championship aspirations.

How did we get here? The injury to QB Julian Sayi was, of course, a big catalyst. Quality QB depth is hard to come by in the transfer portal era, even if you’re at Ohio State and have a $50 million roster spot. But the Buckeyes’ problems run deeper than that. At the end of September, this looked to me like the most reliable elite team in the country. But that thought was based on my belief that Ohio State would straighten out some kinks when the calendar flips from September to October. Not only has that not happened, but the Buckeyes now look shockingly weak even in areas that don’t revolve around an injured QB.

What happened? It’s not a defense that gives up 30 points to an elite USC offense, but generally holds up its end of the bargain. But there is much to argue about on the other side of the ball.

PROBLEM 1: A GOOD BACKUP QB STILL HAS NOT ARRIVED

Ideally, sophomore QB Tavien St. Clair would take over Ohio State’s backup gig this season. St. Clair is a 6-foot-5, 235-pound QB linebacker who arrived as a five-star prospect in 2025 and spent the year scouting behind Say. Members of the Ohio media who joined the network during the summer were under the strong impression that St. Clair is the No. 2 pick behind Sayin and has a chance to become Ohio State’s next great QB. Obviously, Ryan Day doesn’t share that impression. A true freshman, Luke Fahey, a slightly lesser-known four-star, will be the first man off the bench for St. Louis. Defeated Clair. The Buckeyes haven’t even really submitted packages An interesting one for St. Clair, given its large size and mobility. Crime at USC in St. Calling someone with Clair’s profile faced several short distances. It speaks volumes that Day didn’t decide to play a sophomore in any of these.

Fahey could have a bright future, but he’s seriously not ready to run the downfield passing game. He completed 10 passes to Jeremiah Smith (for a relatively low 83 yards) and 11 to the rest of his team. He didn’t add value as a runner and threw several passes that weren’t close to open receivers, including at least two touchdowns. A game-saving two-point conversion attempt failed when Fahey threw the ball from the LA Coliseum onto the 110 freeway.

PROBLEM 2: DOWNLOADED GAME STILL NOT SHOWN

I wrote at the end of September:

Even if you took out all the games against Texas, Ohio State would have been just 38th in the nation in yards per carry through four weeks. But I’m willing to chalk it up to a small sample size and not worry too much about it given the availability of the aforementioned top college football player over the years.

Smith is still here and somehow getting better. But I thought Ohio State’s running game would gradually figure out its issues as well. That’s how it went in 2024, when the Buckeyes couldn’t rack up hard yards on the ground until suddenly they could. The team averaged 3.9 yards per carry in October, 4.4 in November and 4.9 in December and January. By the end of the year, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson were the nation’s most productive defensive backs. The offense rushed for 214 yards on 41 carries in the national title win against an outstanding Notre Dame defense.

We just don’t see such an increase this year. The Buckeyes are 90th nationally, 94th if you exclude sacks (which the NCAA still, absurdly, considers a rushing stat). The running game has only been what you’d call “good” in a few Big Ten games against Illinois and Maryland, and has little to offer against the bigger defensive fronts of Texas, Indiana and Iowa. Even a bad USC front on Saturday night had a pretty respectable performance against Bo Jackson and company.

Jackson had 121 yards on 21 carries, but limited explosiveness. It’s been like this all year. Ohio State has three 20-yard rushers since Week 1, all coming in each of its last three games. In fact, Ohio State’s three 20-yard carries against Power 4 teams is tied for 53rd among 67 P4 teams and Notre Dame.

If you’re not getting big plays on the ground, you’ve got to get them through the air. Ohio State does, thanks to Smith. But no-Jeremiah receivers have just 15 receptions of 20-plus yards all year, which would rank 54th in power conferences. Smith can never be fully stopped, but on Saturday night, you saw (via the maximum two catches by any other Buckeye) what happens when the button is pushed the right way.

PROBLEM 3: THE SCHEDULE IS FULL OF DANGERS

The Buckeyes don’t play any big teams the rest of the way, but they do play four teams that could push them into a cliffhanger. If you get into too many rock fights, you’ll lose some of them:

It’s a four game Ohio State favorite, but no cakewalk. Lose one and the Buckeyes are praying on Selection Sunday. Lose two, it’s over. Either will be uncharted waters, and we still have no idea when or if this team will have a capable quarterback behind center. Pay attention.