Big 12 Football Picks, Predictions For Every Week 5 Game

Week 5 of the college football season has arrived, and the Big 12 race is tight at the top, with Texas Tech, BYU and Utah looking like the top contenders.

For Colorado, Saturday brings its toughest challenge yet as No. 10 Texas Tech visits Folsom Field for a Big 12 showdown. But the Buffaloes aren’t the only conference team facing a major test.

No. 9 BYU travels to TCU for its first true road game of the season, while Cincinnati travels to Arizona for a matchup between two teams fighting to be the top team in the Big 12’s second tier.

Elsewhere around college football, a few ranked matchups highlight the slate, including No. 7 Alabama visiting surprising No. 16 Mississippi State and No. 6 Ohio State traveling to No. 14 Iowa.

With conference play now in full swing, our Buffaloes Wire staff picked all the conference games straight up, plus a few other marquee matchups. Here are our expert picks for Week 5

All games are scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 2, and all times are Mountain Time. Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Utah are off this week.

No. 20 Houston vs. UCF

Sep 18, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars tight end Patrick Overmyer (9) catches a touchdown pass in front of Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive linebacker Austin Romaine (15) in the first half at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

10 a.m., ESPN2

Ariana: Houston

Quarterback Conner Weigman is on fire so far this season with 11 touchdowns, only one interception and nearly 1,000 passing yards in the first four games. He has a talented receiving corps, including Amare Thomas; the run game is solid, and the defense is strong. While I think UCF can keep it competitive, the Cougars ultimately win.

James: Houston

Charlie: Houston

Houston should have beaten Texas Tech and be undefeated, but they didn’t, and that is okay because they should easily take care of UCF at home, staking their claim as a top 4 team in the Big 12.

Kansas vs. Middle Tennessee

Sep 4, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks running back Dylan Edwards (1) runs the ball against the LIU Sharks during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

10 a.m., ESPNU

Ariana: Kansas

This will probably be the most lopsided game among the Big 12 matchups this week, even though it is Kansas. The Jayhawks currently are last in the conference, but they were competitive against Arizona State. Middle Tennessee has a talented quarterback and Kansas’s quarterback, Isaiah Marshall, could have started the season better. Nonetheless, the Jayhawks will get their second win of the season.

James: Kansas

Charlie: Kansas

I don’t think Kansas is good, but the Jayhawks are certainly better than Middle Tennessee.

Sep 26, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) looks to pass against the Utah Utes at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

10 a.m., TNT

Ariana: West Virginia

First, I am surprised Iowa State is favored. ESPN analytics currently gives them a 62.3 percent chance of winning this game. However, Utah essentially dominated them last week. Meanwhile, West Virginia was 3-0 before facing Oklahoma State. It seems like the oddsmakers are reacting a little too strongly to that loss, as the Mountaineers still have an elite run game between quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. and running back Cam Cook. West Virginia wins this game on the ground.

James: Iowa State

Charlie: Iowa State

This game is very intriguing, with Iowa State a slight home favorite despite many likely viewing the Mountaineers as the more talented team. I am a bit down on West Virginia after a disappointing performance against Oklahoma State. Both teams will want this win badly, and I expect a dogfight, but give me the home Cyclones.

No. 9 BYU at TCU

Sep 19, 2026; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; BYU Cougars defensive end Hunter Clegg (90) returns an interception against the Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Rydland-Imagn Images

5 p.m., ESPN/Disney+

Ariana: BYU

TCU is too sloppy and too inconsistent to win this game. They now have two games where they have essentially shot themselves in the foot and lost. On the other side is BYU, which some projections currently view as the favorite to win the Big 12 and go to the playoffs as the conference’s highest-ranked team. The Cougars win this game and cover the spread.

James: BYU

Charlie: BYU

I think BYU is the best team in the Big 12, but Saturday in Fort Worth will be the Cougars’ first true road test of the year. TCU has had an up-and-down start to the season and should feed off its home crowd, but it won’t be enough to overcome the well-rounded Cougars.

No. 10 Texas Tech at Colorado

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Colorado Buffaloes wide receiver Joseph Williams (8) scores a touchdown against the Baylor Bears during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images

5:30 p.m., Fox

We have shared our Colorado-Texas Tech predictions in a separate post, with each staff member providing a final score prediction and some thoughts on the game.

Arizona State vs. Baylor

Sep 19, 2026; London, ENG; Arizona State Sun Devils utility player Clayton Smith (10) reacts after a play against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images

8:30 p.m., ESPN

Ariana: Arizona State

Baylor is coming off its first Big 12 game of the season against Colorado, while the Sun Devils have had two weeks to prepare after a bye following their London game against Kansas. Arizona State has one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the Big 12 with quarterback Cutter Boley and receiver Reed Harris. Baylor has their own talented receiver in Gavin Freeman. Both receivers will put on a show, but the Sun Devils come away with the win because of superior quarterback play.

James: Arizona State

Charlie: Arizona State

Baylor was not impressive despite its win over Colorado last week. Arizona State is still finding itself, but I do believe the Sun Devils will get the home win.

Arizona vs. Cincinnati

Sep 26, 2026; Pullman, Washington, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tre Spivey (12) celebrates a touchdown against the Washington State Cougars during the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images

9 p.m., Fox

Ariana: Arizona

Both teams have a lot of offensive talent, but this game comes down to defense. Arizona has a slightly better defense, but the key is their top-15 run defense, and the Bearcats rely on running the ball with running back Gi’Bran Payne and quarterback JC French IV. Ultimately, this matchup proves to be the difference, and Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita does exactly what Arizona needs him to do to get the win.

James: Arizona

Charlie: Arizona

We will find out if Cincinnati is the real deal after this one. A late kickoff and the home team’s talent make me lean toward the Wildcats. I do think the game is close, and Arizona will have to fight tooth and nail for the victory.

No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State

Sep 26, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor (1) passes the ball during warm ups prior to the game against the Missouri Tigers at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

10 a.m., ABC

Ariana: Alabama

Mississippi State is my favorite underdog story of the year so far (with Florida a close second). It’s remarkable that they are ranked and that their quarterback, Kamario Taylor, is considered a Heisman candidate. However, the fairy tale ends against Alabama. The Crimson Tide beat Florida State, who had their number last season, and are rolling on offense. This matchup comes down to defense. Alabama’s defense will get some stops, while Mississippi State’s won’t. Even though I want Mississippi State to win, Alabama has every reason to win.

James: Alabama

Alabama at Mississippi State is the marquee game of the week. The Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell is really impressive, and I think Alabama will go deep into the CFP this season. Breakout playmaker Kamario Taylor has fueled Mississippi State’s surprise start, so I think this one should have plenty of offense.

Charlie: Alabama

Man, I want to pick the Bulldogs at home because they have shown they are ready for this moment, and I love Kamario Taylor, but the glory won’t come quite yet. Keelon Russell vs. Taylor might be the best QB matchup of the season. I see the Tide pulling it out late, like they often do.

No. 6 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa

Sep 19, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Braeden Jackson (22) and tight end Mason Woods (19) react after a touchdown by Jackson against the UNI Panthers during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

1:30 p.m., CBS

Ariana: Ohio State

Jeremiah Smith. There is the reason Ohio State wins this game. No one has figured out how to stop him, although Kent State actually found some success, as they are the only team not to allow Smith to score a touchdown or reach at least 100 receiving yards this season; however, that is probably because the Buckeyes did not need to use him given they won 59-3. Iowa will not be able to contain him, as Smith is on another level, and he will take over this game.

James: Ohio State

13.5 points favor the Buckeyes, but Iowa’s defense and home atmosphere can put games into uncomfortable territory. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith has too much talent, though, and I’ll take the Buckeyes.

Charlie: Ohio State

I don’t think the Buckeyes are winning by two touchdowns, but they can win playing Iowa’s style of football if needed.

No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri

Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) celebrates with a Heisman pose against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

1:30 p.m., ABC

Ariana: Florida

Missouri is coming off a loss to Mississippi State, where they could not stop the Bulldogs’ offense. Now they face a Florida Gators team with an even better offense. They have put up over 40 points in every game and have scored over 50 points in three out of their first four games. This offense looks unstoppable right now in the run and the pass game. Gators win their second game in a row against a ranked team.

James: Florida

Charlie: Florida

Missouri is a tough customer at home, and Florida needs this win to show they are the real deal. The difference comes on the ground, where Jaden Baugh and the Gators will keep QB Aaron Philo from having to do it all himself.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football picks, predictions for every Week 5 game